8:46pm: Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that five teams have shown some amount of interest in Snell.
10:22 am: The Giants have hovered around the National League Wild Card race for most of the year but slipped back recently, which could lead to them deciding to sell prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic took a look at some possible trade candidates, reporting that left-hander Blake Snell is drawing significant trade interest. Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic listed Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores as bats that are available around the league. Baggarly also mentions right-hander Alex Cobb and lefty Taylor Rogers as candidates to be moved in the coming days.
San Francisco is currently 49-55, which only puts them 5.5 games back of the nearest playoff spot, but they would have to pull away from the Cubs and then pass the Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Padres in order to get into postseason position. They’re not totally buried but the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just an 11.5% shot of getting in while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even less optimistic at 5.6%. With that kind of Hail Mary window, it’s logical that the Giants would look into shifting their priorities to optimizing next year’s team, which would mean making some players available now.
It’s unsurprising that Snell would draw significant trade interest, though his trade candidacy would have complications. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball when at his best, which is why he has two Cy Young awards on his mantel. That includes getting last year’s National League trophy when he posted a 2.25 earned run average over 32 starts with the Padres.
But 2024 has been far less smooth. Despite his excellent 2023 campaign, he lingered in free agency for a long time and didn’t sign with the Giants until the middle of March. After a quick ramp-up, he made three rough starts before landing on the injured list with a left adductor strain. He returned from the IL and had three more bad outings before returning to the IL in early June with a left groin strain. At that time, he had an ERA of 9.51 in those six starts.
He has since returned and been in much better form. He shut out the Blue Jays and then the Twins before allowing two earned runs against the Dodgers. Those three better starts have reduced his ERA to 5.83 for the year.
Despite the inconsistent results this year, some clubs would surely be willing to bank on his track record and recent return to form. However, his contract adds another layer of complication. He signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that allows him to opt-out at season’s end.
Trading players with such provisions is usually a tricky proposition, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers and it’s a situation that Giant fans are likely familiar with from the Carlos Rodón saga from a few years ago. Despite having a dominant season for a middling Giants club, Rodón wasn’t moved at the deadline as he had an upcoming opt-out that seemed to ward off potential buyers.
Players in such situations are mostly downside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will leave, making them a rental in a best-case scenario. If they perform poorly or get hurt, they will stick around and keep their notable salary on the books. Surrendering notable prospects for such an arrangement is often an unattractive proposition and the selling club might not want to give up a star player for an uninspiring return.
Snell’s contract consists of a $15MM salary this year and a $17MM signing bonus that Baggarly notes is not transferable to a trade partner. There’s a $30MM player option for 2025 that Snell could trigger if he finishes the season poorly or is injured, but he could also opt-out if he finishes strong. Those complications might soften the offers but demand for pitching is expected to outstrip supply, especially in terms of front-of-the-rotation type arms, so perhaps the Giants will get some intriguing calls.
It makes sense that the Giants would listen to offers to see if they could get that contract off their books while also recouping some younger talent. Even without Snell, next year’s rotation could consist of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks, with Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn perhaps back in the mix if their health allows. Prospect Carson Whisenhunt has reached Triple-A while the club also has Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Kai-Wei Teng on the 40-man roster.
Sticking with the rotation, Cobb is a more straightforward trade candidate in the sense that he’s an impending free agent. Even though he underwent hip surgery in October, the Giants picked up his $10MM option for this year in the hopes that he wouldn’t miss that much time. Unfortunately, his return has been slowed by some elbow and shoulder issues and still hasn’t pitched in the majors this season.
He has been rehabbing of late and tossed five shutout innings at the Triple-A level on Saturday. Baggarly notes that he could be reinstated and pitch for the Giants on Sunday, which would essentially be a pre-deadline showcase for interested clubs. The injury issues from this year will likely give clubs some hesitation but Cobb is an established veteran with a 3.85 ERA over 230 career starts. As recently as last year, he was able to toss 151 1/3 innings with a 3.87 ERA.
As for the bats, Rosenthal mentioned Flores as a trade candidate on Wednesday but the Giants put him on the IL the next day due to right knee tendonitis. Players on the IL can still be traded but he is also having a down season, hitting .206/.277/.318 for a wRC+ of 71. He’s making $6.5MM this year and then has a dual player/team option for 2025. He first has to decide on a $3.5MM player option and then, if he declines, the team would have an $8.5MM option available. Given his down season, he might be inclined to pick up his end of the deal rather than going to free agency.
Conforto is a straightforward trade candidate since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a two-year, $36MM deal going into 2023 and then declined to opt out after hitting a league-average .239/.334/.384 last year. He started out well this year but has tapered off. He was hitting .280/.331/.490 when he landed on the IL on May 12 due to a right hamstring strain. Since coming off the IL in early June, he’s hitting .165/.262/.331.
Yastrzemski can be retained via arbitration through next year, but there’s logic in considering trades now. He’ll turn 34 next month and is making $7.9MM, meaning he could be looking for an eight-figure salary in arbitration next year. He’s been a consistently solid player during his career on both sides of the ball. He has hit .241/.326/.458 for a wRC+ of 114 while racking up 35 Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average. Per FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.6 wins above replacement in every previous season of his career and is currently at 1.3 fWAR this year.
Even without Conforto and Yastrzemski, the Giants could go into next year with an outfield mix consisting of Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos with guys like Derek Hill, Tyler Fitzgerald and Wade Meckler also in the mix.
As for Rogers, he’s in the second season of a three-year, $33MM deal he signed with the Giants. He has continued to pitch well and the Giants could keep him for next year, but moving now might also make sense. He has a 2.27 ERA this year but that’s largely propped up by an unsustainable 84.1% strand rate. His 25.6% strikeout rate is his worst since 2017 and he’ll be turning 34 this winter.
Teams generally sign free agents looking for most production in the beginning of the deal, with the later years a pill they swallow as the price of doing business. If there’s a way for them to wriggle out of the last season of the Rogers pact, they might consider taking it. Such a move could potentially free up some cash, bring back some young talent or both. It would create a hole in next year’s bullpen but relievers are often viewed as volatile and fairly replaceable.
All together, the Giants make for an interesting late entry into a market that has been perceived to have a lack of sellers. As laid out by Baggarly, the club could try to duck under the competitive balance tax in the days to come but it would be difficult to do. RosterResource estimates they are currently just above $253MM, more than $16MM above the $237MM base threshold. They would effectively have to find takers for all the money owed to Snell, Rogers, Conforto, Yastrzemski and Cobb to dip under and therefore might be focused on prospect capital between now and the July 30 deadline.
